End Times

Author: Peter Turchin.

Publisher: Allen Lane 2023. 352 pages.

Reviewer: David Bush

In 2010 Peter Turchin wrote to Nature magazine in response to their request for ‘visions of 2020’. Rather than the upbeat expectations of progress Turchin claimed: “The next decade is likely to be a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe.” Pointing to waves of disruption that tend to recur every 50 years he said, “All these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020.”

Turchin describes himself as a complexity scientist who studies patterns in society with specific focus on what causes societies to succeed or fail. The advent of computing has enabled the collection and analysis of data as diverse as the diet of populations and the number of people who receive advanced education.

Instead of a series of random events, Turchin claims that over hundreds of years revolutions, war and State collapse are linked by common factors. When income inequality surges two things happen. First, a large group of people find it increasingly hard to make ends meet – he calls this ‘immiseration’ as the ‘wealth pump’ moves funds from the majority of citizens to the top 1 percent. This leads to mass discontent.

Secondly, there is an overproduction of elites. That is educated and often wealthy individuals who aspire to important roles or positions. He describes this as musical chairs where the number of chairs remains constant, but the number of participants dramatically increases. An overproduction of elites he claims led to state breakdown in Imperial China, medieval France and the American Civil War as the disappointed become ‘counter elites’ bent on destroying the system which has denied them what they want.

In 2010 Turchin set out how the crisis he saw coming could be averted, drawing on historical precedent from the United Kingdom in the 19th century and the USA from the 1930s where Elites limited their incomes and the majority of the population was supported. In the USA taxes on the wealthy moved from 7 percent to nearly 90 percent fostering a period of unity and stability that ended in the late 1970s when taxes on wealth decreased dramatically. The result is a ‘wealth pump’ which moves wealth from the bottom and the middle to the top 1 percent.

In 2023 Turchin claims it is too late to avoid the consequences of this inequality. His hope, is that his analysis of a long period of history will prompt the voluntary changes which can strengthen a society.

This is not a book about politics. Turchin is a data scientist. There is no question, however, that the matters he discusses lie at the heart of political decision making. This is a book you want to discuss with a friend to tease out the ideas.