Vaping 'just as likely' to lead to taking up smoking as it is to quitting cigarettes, research finds

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A University of Otago study found those who vape were “just as likely to transition to smoking as smokers were to transition to vaping”.

Vaping was initially “hailed (as) a new tool to help people quit smoking, but to date that evidence has been inconsistent”, said Andre Mason, lead author and postgraduate researcher at the university.

“Contrary to the desired hope, vaping appears to have emerged as just another smoking-related behaviour rather than a substitute for smoking that primarily helps people quit,” he said.

“Furthermore, and perhaps more concerningly, vaping appeared to be equally as likely to increase the uptake of cigarette smoking as it was to have a cessation effect.”

Unlike previous studies, the researchers found “no consistent evidence that vaping may increase the likelihood of later smoking behaviours or act as a cessation pathway from smoking to vaping.

“Instead ... there are frequent transitions between smoking and vaping and vice versa.”

Young people have spoken of their “borderline crippling” addiction to vaping and the difficulty they have in stopping.

Izzy Stewart, 19, a Victoria University student who got hooked in high school, said she now vapes about 50 times a day, spending about $20 a month.

“I don’t think I’ll be able to quit,” she said. “It is an addiction … you don’t realise it until it’s too late.”

The study, published on Wednesday, analysed data from the 2018-2020 New Zealand Attitudes and Values survey, a national study of social attitudes, personality and health outcomes of more than 70,000 people.

Those in the survey who smoked cigarettes decreased each year, from 7.4%, or 3454 people, in 2018, to 6.2% the following year and then 5.2%, or 1964 people, in 2020.

Those who vaped increased from 2.8%, or 1306 people, in 2018, to 2.9% in 2019 and 3.4%, or 1293 people, in 2020.

The researchers found no consistent evidence that vaping acts as a pathway to stop smoking, Mason said.

“If we’re attracting people that wouldn’t have otherwise smoked into a market that is vaping – and there is a pathway into smoking – that is where the concern is.”

Asthma and Respiratory Foundation chief executive Letitia Harding said the research was “unfortunately” not unexpected.

“This [study] is really good to have some New Zealand data and information from a uniquely New Zealand perspective and I think that’s important because we can look to ... do something a lot tougher around these products,” Harding said.

A 2021 World Health Organisation report “clearly stated that children who use vapes can double their chances of taking up cigarettes,” she said.

Harding is advocating for a cap on nicotine content across all vape products of 20mg/ml instead of 50mg/ml and a ban on all new specialist vape retailers (SVR).

“The foundation has never believed that vaping products were the magic bullet to [achieving Smokefree 2025], and evidence is showing us we need to be cautious and we need to drop the prevalence of SVRs popping up over the country.

“High nicotine content is a huge problem for our rangatahi (youth) and that’s what is getting them addicted, and we certainly don’t want them turning to cigarettes.”

Estimates from 2019 suggest Aotearoa has the second highest rates of ever using or currently using nicotine vaping products.

They showed 15.5% of smokers and recent ex-smokers in New Zealand had ever used a nicotine vaping product, and 7.8% carried out current use.

England recorded slightly higher with 17.2% and 9.4% respectively.

Health Minister Ayesha Verrall announced at the start of the month new vape retailers will have to be more than 300m from schools and marae, and the sale of cheap disposable vapes would be restricted.

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