As of December 11, 2024, there have been 84 cases of wild polio virus infection (59 in Pakistan and 25 in Afghanistan). This compares unfavourably with only 12 cases in 2023.

Article by PDG Murray Verso, Zone 8 End Polio Now Coordinator

Although this year’s increase in cases is disappointing, it reflects the ups and down of the polio eradication campaign. We have our wins and our losses, Nevertheless, we will get there in the end – just like a game of snakes and ladders.

The explosion of cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan is due to several factors:

• The population has become increasingly nomadic resulting in children missing out on vaccination programs.  

• Disinformation about vaccines being a western conspiracy to sterilize Muslims and general distrust of vaccines are rampant.

• Sometimes communities refuse to allow their children to be vaccinated unless demands such as improved infrastructure are met.

• Attacks on vaccinators and their police guards are ongoing.

• Recently, the Taliban banned door to door vaccinations by female vaccinators.

Despite these challenges, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) believes it is still possible to achieve its two strategic goals:

1. To permanently interrupt transmission of all polio virus in Afghanistan and Pakistan by the end of 2025, and if no further cases, certify those countries polio free by the end of 2027.

2. To stop the transmission of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 by the end of 2026 and prevent outbreaks in polio-free regions. Certification 2029.

Mathematic modelling says that it takes an average of 39.2 throws to complete a game of snakes and ladders. Rotary has been working with the GPEI to eradicate polio since 1988, that is 36 years. So, in a light hearted sense, it could be argued that we are almost on target to reach the GPEI goals!

The table below shows how the WPV1 caseload has fluctuated over the past seven years, just like a game of snakes and ladders.

This year’s figures may be disheartening, but it is still possible that next year we will see the last cases of wild polio virus. Despite the ups and downs, we must remain optimistic.

A generation ago, poliomyelitis was a feared disease.  paralysing hundreds of thousands of children every year. Most countries have now eliminated the disease, and our generation is close to eradicating it entirely.