Kevin Clements writes of how the USA under Donald Trump is destroying hard-won agreements for international order and cooperation and is creating chaos and further suffering in war-torn countries.

I CAN'T RECALL a moment in my life when the world has seemed so turbulent, chaotic and unpredictable. The idea of a rules-based international order seems a very distant prospect as the United States, under Donald Trump, flaunts democracy and the rule of law at home and undermines hard-fought-for multilateral institutions, agreements and conventions abroad. Of course, many countries always felt excluded from the benefits of the old liberal world order, based as it was on free markets, democratic polities, the United Nations and Bretton Woods institutions. But it did work effectively for seven decades in establishing some basic rules of the road governing international behaviour.

While the United Nations and regional organisations have always had to contend with the reality of national sovereignty and nationalism, there has been a willingness in the past to sacrifice some degree of sovereignty for the sake of international law and multilateral institutions. These are the organisations that are capable of solving some of the transnational problems that individual nations are unable to solve on their own, eg, world health pandemics, climate change, interstate and intrastate warfare, refugees and displaced persons, international development assistance. The international community has always been fragile but it has never been assaulted so systematically by Russia and the US as it has in the past few years.

A Less Peaceful World

The 2024 Global Peace Index (GPI) found that the world is less peaceful than it was in 2008, with a growing gap between the most and least peaceful countries. The number of conflicts in the world increased to 56 in 2024, the highest since World War II. The number of countries involved in conflicts outside their borders increased to 92 in 2024, the highest since the inception of the Global Peace Index.

This unpeacefulness has been accompanied by a rapid increase in military spending. Total global military expenditure reached $2,443 billion in 2023, an increase of 6.8 per cent in real terms from 2022. This was the steepest year-on-year increase since 2009. The 10 largest spenders in 2023 — led by the United States, China and Russia — all increased their military spending. Donald Trump is asking for all countries (including NZ) to increase their military spending even though the world is afflicted by the negative consequences of such expenditure. The global economic impact of violence in 2023 was $19.1 trillion and 97 countries deteriorated in peacefulness in 2024, more than any other year for which the Global Peace Index has gathered data.

In recognition of the negative consequences of expanding military expenditure, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in January moved the Doomsday Clock from 90 seconds to midnight to 89 seconds to midnight — the closest to midnight since assessments began in 1947. Each war (eg, the current civil wars in Eastern Congo or Myanmar) is generating untold tragedy and suffering, but I want to focus attention on three major violent hotspots.

The Middle East

The Middle East continues to face significant challenges, with the Israel-Palestine conflict, regional instability and external interventions dominating the landscape.

The Gaza conflict, now in its 15th month, has resulted in over 46,000 Palestinian deaths, 1,200 Israeli deaths and a dire humanitarian crisis. 13,319 children have been killed. Gaza has been reduced to rubble. Over 1.6 million Gazans are displaced, and the region faces severe food, water and medical shortages. Reconstruction efforts are stalled, and the international community’s calls for a two-state solution remain unmet.

In the midst of near total destruction, President Trump is contemplating the relocation of 2.14 million Gazans so that the US can turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. This would be ethnic cleansing and the second forced relocation of Palestinians in the last 76 years. It would generate even more martyrs for a free and independent Palestine.

The ceasefire agreement reached in January 2025 remains extremely fragile. Israel’s far-right coalition opposes long-term peace deals, and the lack of any clear plans for “the day after" the war suggests continued low-level fighting and humanitarian suffering for many years to come.

Ukraine

The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its third year, shows no signs of a definitive resolution, with both sides facing economic and military challenges. Despite some Russian advances, Ukraine has maintained significant resistance, ceding only 0.5 per cent of its territory in 2024. However, Ukraine faces personnel shortages and reliance on dwindling Western military aid. Russia's military casualties are approaching 300,000. This includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

President Trump’s desire to broker a peace deal is contradicting all the basic rules of successful conflict resolution. Russia and the US can’t broker a deal that excludes Ukraine and Europe, potentially freezing the conflict along current frontlines. However, negotations are complicated by Russia’s unwillingness to concede territory and Ukraine’s fear of a regrouped Russian offensive. Russia’s defence spending has surged to 25 per cent of its state budget, while Western sanctions continue to pressure its economy. Ukraine, meanwhile, faces economic exhaustion and uncertainty over continued US support.

While diplomatic efforts may gain momentum in 2025, a lasting peace agreement remains unlikely.

Sudan

Sudan’s civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has created a humanitarian catastrophe, with no clear path to peace.

The SAF has regained control of key areas, including Khartoum and Jebel Moya, but the RSF continues its offensive in Darfur. Both sides are propped up by international stakeholders, prolonging the conflict. More than 61,000 people have died in Khartoum state. Over 800,000 people are displaced in Darfur alone, with severe malnutrition and disease outbreaks. The siege of El Fasher has exacerbated conditions, leaving civilians trapped in crossfire. Neither side appears willing to engage in meaningful peace talks. Decentralised tribal groups further complicate negotiations, as they demand a seat at the table while pursuing their own territorial ambitions.

The lack of a unified international response has hindered progress. Without significant diplomatic intervention, the conflict is likely to continue, with devastating consequences for civilians.

Time to Act

Unfortunately, these three conflicts show little prospect of easy resolution. Multilateral institutions like the United Nations and regional organisations like the European Union are being marginalised and gutted by Russia and the United States under Trump. The prospects for peace in the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan in 2025 are bleak, with ongoing conflicts, geopolitical rivalries and humanitarian crises dominating the landscape. While temporary ceasefires and diplomatic efforts offer glimmers of hope, lasting resolutions remain elusive due to entrenched political interests, external interventions, and the absence of negotiated peace agreements and comprehensive peace frameworks. The international community’s role in addressing these crises will be critical, but current dynamics suggest that reactive conflict management, rather than resolution, will define the year ahead.

The reality is that Donald Trump and far too many other political leaders no longer believe in a rules-based order and a revived and reformed United Nations. So instead of a rules-based order we have chaos, realpolitik and a reassertion of greed, power politics, and economic and political competition. We know from bitter experience that this will end with the four horsemen of the apocalypse: conquest, war, famine and death. It’s up to those who believe in a common humanity to work for compassionate, collaborative, cooperative politics and a robust revival of multilateralism.

Tui Motu Magazine. Issue 301 March 2025: 6-7